“我们错了”：从杜威到特朗普，笼罩在2026年中期选举预测上的民调失误
‘We were wrong’: From Dewey to Trump, the polling misses hanging over the 2026 midterm forecasts
AI 摘要民调预测机构在选举日倾向民主党。然而民调回复率出现暴跌，且总统民调已连续三个周期偏向民主党并出现失误。2026年中期选举的预测因此面临民调预测失误的阴影。
‘We were wrong’: From Dewey to Trump, the polling misses hanging over the 2026 midterm forecasts
AI 摘要民调预测机构在选举日倾向民主党。然而民调回复率出现暴跌，且总统民调已连续三个周期偏向民主党并出现失误。2026年中期选举的预测因此面临民调预测失误的阴影。